Speculations of Xi Jinping’s Political Future: Reasons Behind Xi’s Disappearance
Abstract
Chinese President Xi Jinping was disappeared from the public life for around fifteen days. In between, the BRICS submit took place in Brazil and Xi did not attend that either. Due to this absence, several experts start predicting the end of Xi Jinping’s political career as the President of China. This paper will analyse the impact of a President’s disappearance of ‘Great Power’ like China and its consequences for the global order. It will figure out the reasons of this disappearance of Xi from the public sphere, what was behind the scene or what could be if this disappearance is permanent, who is the actual or real power centre of the People’s Republic of China? At the end of this paper we will analyse the implications of Xi’s disappearance in domestic politics.
Keywords: Communist Party of China (CPC), BRICS, Leader for life, Political Bureau, broader change, Trade War.
Introduction
Chinese President Xi Jinping, known as a leader for life, appears to be taking a new direction by assigning authority to key institutions within the Communist Party of China a notable shift in his more than 12-year rule. This move has triggered speculation that Xi might be preparing for a structured power transition or gradually stepping back from full control, possibly in anticipation of retirement. Discussion of a possible transition intensified after China’s state-run news agency Xinhua reported that the 24-member Political Bureau of the Communist Party reviewed new regulations concerning the functioning of the Party’s core institutions during a June 30, 2025 meeting chaired by Xi. The purpose of these rules is to better define the formation, responsibilities, and operations of the Central Committee’s decision-making and coordinating bodies. Xinhua stated that these institutions are expected to take on greater responsibility in planning, discussing, and supervising key initiatives, enhancing their leadership and coordination roles.
Since taking charge as Communist Party of China (CPC) General Secretary in 2012, Xi quickly took collective control across key institutions: The Party, the Presidency, and the military, through his role as Chairman of the Central Military Commission. His leadership has been marked by an extensive anti-corruption campaign that led to the punishment of over a million officials and the removal of several high-ranking generals. His status was further elevated when he was designated the Party’s “core leader”, a title previously reserved for Mao Zedong. In 2018, constitutional changes removed the presidential term limits, allowing Xi to secure a third five-year term as CPC General Secretary in 2022 and President in 2023 a break from the precedent set by his ancestors, who stepped down after two terms. Experts predict that any clear signals about whether Xi plans to retain or relinquish power will likely emerge before or during the next Party Congress in 2027, which marks the end of his current term.
For over a decade, President Xi Jinping has remained firmly at the top of China’s power structure. His control over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the state is often compared to that of an emperor. Through widespread purges, institutional restructuring, and a growing cult of personality, Xi has established himself as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. However, lately, there has been an unusual silence surrounding Xi, sparking widespread speculation. His sudden and unexplained absence from major global events like the recent BRICS summit has raised concerns worldwide. In tightly controlled authoritarian regimes, such disappearances are rarely coincidental; they often signal a calculated move or deeper internal instability. Xi was last seen in public on June 24, when he met Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. After that, he vanished from public view for nearly two weeks. Then, on July 7, China’s state news agency Xinhua released a photo of Xi laying a wreath at a war memorial in Shanxi province. The photo was tightly cropped and lacked broader context, likely intended to quell rumours, but it only deepened the mystery. Observers also noted that Xi had skipped another major event in June: a key constitutional loyalty ceremony attended by over 50 top party officials. In China’s carefully staged political system, such absences are rarely normal.
While overseas Chinese dissident groups have circulated rumours of internal power struggles within the tightly controlled Communist Party, a political analyst based in China speaking anonymously told the South China Morning Post that these developments may indicate that the groundwork is being laid for a transition of power. “These new rules could be part of a broader strategy, as this is a critical moment for a potential leadership change”, the analyst suggested. Other observers believe that Xi is merely offloading certain responsibilities to focus on broader strategic matters. Victor Shih, a political expert at the University of California San Diego, noted that Xi might be stepping away from the workings of daily governance, which would necessitate mechanisms to ensure his directives are implemented by lower-level officials. Notably, Xi also skipped the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, the first such absence since he became President, with Premier Li Qiang representing China instead. This development comes amid mounting challenges for China, including the trade conflict with the U.S. initiated during Donald Trump’s presidency, which has disrupted 440 billion dollars’ worth of Chinese exports. Domestically, China is dealing with a slow economy, a collapsing housing sector, and the persistent effects of strict COVID-19 lockdowns that severely impacted business activity.
Experts who study China believe the country may be heading towards political turmoil. Over the past year, many of Xi’s closest allies have either been removed from power or have mysteriously disappeared. Defence Minister Li Shangfu and Foreign Minister Qin Gang vanished without explanation and were later dismissed. Military leaders like Wei Fenghe were removed, some like Xu Qiliang passed away, and others like He Weidong have disappeared from the public eye. These removals have drawn attention. Some see it as Xi tightening his grip on power, while others believe it could be a response to growing internal dissent or an effort by rival factions to sideline him. Meanwhile, reports of corruption in the People’s Liberation Army, especially in its Rocket Force, have embarrassed Xi in recent years.
Amid all this silence, talk of succession has started to surface. Several names are being discussed among China-watchers and within high-level party circles. Wang Yang, a reform-minded technocrat once side-lined by Xi, is said to be re-emerging as a possible successor. General Zhang Youxia, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, is reportedly gaining influence within military ranks. Meanwhile, the Hu Chunhua faction, which had lost relevance during Xi’s rise, is now showing signs of making a comeback. These developments are unfolding at a time when China faces serious domestic challenges slump in the real estate sector, youth unemployment nearing 15%, and continued failures in advanced sectors like semiconductors. Add to this the ongoing trade tensions and Western sanctions, and China’s economy is facing its most difficult period in decades.
Many senior observers have dismissed these rumours. A senior China analyst called it part of a regular yearly cycle of speculation and said there’s nothing unusual; Xi Jinping is simply staying out of the spotlight while the world’s attention is focused elsewhere, like U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade wars or rising tensions between India and Pakistan. “It’s a Chinese approach”, the analyst said, “stay low and quietly move toward your goal”. That might be partly true. Xi has always believed in strategic patience and prefers silence over public confrontation. But history warns us to be cautious. In the secretive world of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), even the most powerful leaders can be quietly pushed aside when they fall out of favour. There are rarely any formal announcements. They just disappear, replaced, rewritten, or erased from memory.
The same system that Xi once controlled so tightly may now be turning against him. If the party feels he’s becoming a liability, he could face the same quiet removal that he imposed on others. His absence from major events, the silent removal of his close allies, and the rise of rival figures all suggest a shift happening at the top levels of power. Currently, the CCP is silent, as it usually is during times of change. But behind the scenes, the balance of power might already be shifting. Whether Xi is missing due to illness, political isolation, or is slowly being pushed out by the very system he created, one thing is clear that China is entering a period of political uncertainty. The leader who once eliminated all his rivals may now be surrounded by them. And as the world watches Beijing closely, the growing silence says a lot. In China, such silence often comes just before a major change.
Between the end of May and the beginning of June, Chinese President Xi Jinping suddenly vanished from public view. There were no parades, no spotlights, and no photos on the front pages of People’s Daily, where he used to appear every day. Instead, other senior Communist Party leaders were seen welcoming foreign guests in Beijing’s grand halls. According to CNN-News18, top intelligence officials say that “Xi’s disappearance is not unusual, and China has a history of pushing top leaders aside”. It’s an old method, the famous names stay on paper, while the real power quietly shifts elsewhere.
When Xi reappeared in early June, it was not the grand return the world expected. He met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, but the setting was quite simple. There was no red-carpet welcome. According to the Belarusian presidential press service, “Xi looked tired, distracted, and generally unwell during the meeting”. Even more unusual, his personal security team has been reduced by half. His father’s grand mausoleum has lost its official status. And after a recent phone call with Donald Trump, Chinese state TV made a rare mistake; they referred to Xi without any title. Though they later corrected it, the slip pointed to internal cracks. As Xi’s health and public image seem to fade, power dynamics are changing. General Zhang Youxia, who had helped Xi secure a historic third term, is now rumoured to be calling the shots in China’s People’s Liberation Army. However, he reportedly had a fallout with Xi shortly after.
One source said, “Right now, the real power is in the hands of General Zhang Youxia, who is the First Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and he is supported by senior leaders of the Communist Party from the Hu Jintao faction”. Dozens of generals loyal to Xi Jinping have either disappeared or been removed. There are strong rumours of secret purges. Top intelligence officials told CNN-News18, “The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has done this before with three major leaders taking away their actual power and leaving them with only ceremonial roles”.
Conclusion
After a detailed discussion, we can say that the disappearance of Xi Jinping was not a coincidence but it was due to some major reasons. And this disappearance was not permanent, which shows that there is any issue between President Xi and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and there are no speculations regarding the removal of President. The upcoming Presidential elections in China will be in 2027, and that time it will be interesting to see the name of the presidential candidate. There are possibilities that this disappearance was due to an interim meeting of the Communist Party of China regarding the future planning and strategies for tariff war with the US and the uncertain global order. And in China, the disappearance of leaders is not new, it happened in the past as well.
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