Bhagwati Prakash and Jaya Sharma
The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), characterized by the fusion of technologies blurring lines inter se the physical, digital, and biological spheres and collectively referred to as cyber-physical system has been fast embracing the world. This new industrial revolution can offer an opportunity to leapfrog rapid development and growth in the ensuing decades, if our education system would endeavor to master the capabilities needed to adapt this technology shift in the offing. It may also pose an equally formidable challenge, if our education system would fail to tide over this massive, irreversible and long-term disruption cycle of the 4IR. Indeed, this new industrial revolution is unfolding multiple challenges of breakthroughs in technology including robotics, artificial intelligence, data science, business informatics, nano-technology, quantum computing, biotechnology, the Internet of Things (IOT), the Industrial Internet of Things (IoT), fifth-generation wireless technologies (5G), precision drones, additive manufacturing/ 3D printing and fully autonomous vehicles to necessitate a complete overhaul of our education. According to Klaus Schwab, the Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, these emergent technologies are likely to disrupt almost every industry in every country. The breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire system of production, management, and governance. Moreover, recently “an Oxford study has estimated that 47% of the jobs in the US, 69% of the jobs in India and 77% of the jobs in China will not exist in 25 years. This is not mere conjecture. China’s factories are adding robots faster than they are hiring people. India’s information technology sector is already witnessing jobless growth and total employment may have already peaked.”
We are already on the threshold of this all pervasive revolution comprising huge advances in genomics, artificial intelligence, materials and manufacturing technologies, wherein machines are closing in on human ability, robots are replacing humans in industries and in homes too, reusable rockets can make space travel and colonies in space a reality and gene editing can facilitate to create favourable traits and new life forms. All of these are bound to outdate our curricula, research and skilling programmes. Only those countries would thrive with prosperity in the 20s, whose education and research systems would cope up and master this paradigm shift.
Our current education system in India has yet to gear up to cope up with all such disruptive changes. India has earlier as well, suffered de- industrialization in the post-globalization era in the past quarter century due to our failure to cope up with the third industrial revolution (3IR), especially the 3.5IR, and have almost got reduced into a country of assembly lines and toll manufacturer of spares, for large transnational corporations (TNS) and producers of “Made by India’ products and brands. Most original equipment manufacturers have been edged out from a broad range of sectors, ranging from small toy manufacturing, bicycle, automobiles locomotives, telecom hardware of 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G technologies to the solar panels and peripherals. Even in solar power, where India is slated to emerge as the 2nd largest solar market in the world in 2018, 83% of the solar panels have to be imported mostly from China. Panels in the range of Rs 22,229 to Rs 28,385 crores have been imported per annum. According to a parliamentary panel, it has costed two lac jobs in the country every year due to the import of solar panels alone from China’. We have miserably failed to develop affordable technologies for the manufacture of Silicon ingots as well for thin wafering of the Silicon ingots, needed for making the PV cells and modules. Same is true with telecom technology wherein we have turned fully dependent on imports for ali 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G telecom hardware. Whereas, we had been well competitive in the first generation of telecom technology, and had even successfully experimented the homegrown. corDECT technology for 2G which was even capable to facilitate concurrent data and voice flows; but, unfortunately we opted for the European GSM Technology for 2G. China while depicting techno-nationalistic commitment, endeavored to develop its own TD-LTE technology. which has captured more than half the global market of the 4G telecom revolution. While we missed the boat even after developing a very good homegrown coreDECT technology for 2G mobile telephony much earlier than China. Even in the mobile handset manufacturing as well, the indigenous value addition is barely 4-6% in the form of assembling of the handsets.
Now in the next-gen of the surface mobility as well, within 7-10 years, the fossil-fuel (i.e. petrol diesel driven) cars would be largely out of roads and the battery driven electric vehicles and/or hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles would sweep the roads and rails. But, we have not begun to develop alternative technologies and its complete downstream value chains and requisite manufacturing eco system at the required pace indigenously. The transport minister. Nitin Gadkary has already announced of banning the sale of fossil fuel (Petrol and diesel) driven vehicles by 2030. The market for storage batteries alone for the electric vehicles would be of $ 300 billion, 3 times that of solar. For zero emission mobility wherein the cars, buses and trains driven by hydrogen fuel cell are being launched world over. India has failed to take a call, except one hydrogen powered bus developed by Tata Motors in collaboration with ISRO and IOC, Whether we adopt the battery driven cars or hydrogen fuel cell powered cars, almost the entire auto ancillary units’ sector, especially the one manufacturing of engines and engine parts sector is going to die. After shifting to any alternative energy based mobility with electric or hydrogen powered vehicles, it would be harder to find petrol stations, engine spares sector or related trade or any mechanic to fix the fault of around 2000 moving parts that bedevil the fossil fuel based engines. Self driven cars on demand may eliminate the practice of owning a car and hence car dealers might begin to disappear by 2025 and onwards.
Moreover, the all pervasive Artificial Intelligence (AI), Robotics and Automation would transform everything from civil construction to manufacturing and from trade to all kinds of services. But the NITI Aayog has been funded with mere Rs 3,700 crore to create a focused effort in this area, which is a petty pigmy amount vis a vis Chinese or Euro-American endeavors and Japan as well as Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. Look at the scale of what China has already done which is madly seeking dominance of global Al industry. China has a plan to create a $150 billion Al industry by 2022. Our universities have to move fast to match Chinese might in Al, Robotics, data science and automation technologies, drones etc. Ford in Sanand in Gujarat has replaced 85% of its workers on the shop floor with robots. Robots have already been developed in China and other advanced nations for brick masonry, tile fixing, sewage clearance and lot many tasks. If we would have to import or outsource all Al and robotic solutions from outside, we would be badly drained out of all our foreign exchange resources and striped of the employment potential of the new industrial revolution. To the contrary, if we would build homegrown capacities and export these Al and robotic solutions to outside world, huge employment would be generated and a shower of foreign exchange would be received. But, our universities and even the elite institutes are yet to make a reasonable headway in data science, Al, robotics, 3D Printing. Machine learning, Internet of Things, electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell technology etc., especially when compared with China or any industrialized nation like the US, Germany, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and so on.
The consequences would be quite formidable on the defence front as well, if the Chinese (who swallowed Aksai Chin from us in 1962 and devastated the massive buffer state of Tibet, captured Aksai Chin from us and are now right on our borders) dominate us in using digital technology and machine intelligence on our borders. They are well aggressive in cyber warfare, cyber-security and the use of robots and drones for warfare. The civilian infrastructure that has been put in place by China is now being adapted to warfare. For instance, China is the leading manufacturer of small drones in the world. But by adding machine intelligence and small arms to these drones, China can change the very nature of warfare (even if you leave cyber-attacks aside). No wonder if we see a thousand of them coming at us, powered with AI and their emergent intelligence of crowds like an aggression of bees from a beehive”. They would be impossible to defend against, like a swarm of locusts.
Our elite institutes, universities, including the colleges have to prepare to revamp total education, including research and the skill imparting endeavor with a futuristic vision. So, it is high time for our higher education system to integrate Data Science, Robotics, Automation, 3-D Printing, Internet of Things nanotechnology, biotechnology, 5-G telecom technology, alternative energy vehicles including electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell driven vehicles related technologies and job skills. Chinese universities have been rapidly evolving as places of powerful and high quality research in all these spheres and as a result they are also fast emerging as an increasingly important destination for international students. China is becoming a global economic superpower by virtue of the quality and innovativeness of its education, which is fast driving huge increase in prosperity of its people. India can catch and overtake its superpower neighbour by improving the quality and innovativeness of its higher education.
References
1. “The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means and how to respond”. World Economic Forum,
https://
www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial- revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/
2. Schwab, Klaus (2017) [2016]. The Fourth Industrial Revolution, New York: Crown Publishing Group. ISBN 9781524758875
3. Is India ready for the fourth industrial revolution?, https:/ /www.livemint.com/Opinion/nWG88na6rgg72 p07vV5tLN/Is-India-ready-for-the-fourth-industrial- revolution.html
4. Ibid
5. China accounts for 89% of India’s total solar cells imports in 2017-18, https://wap.business-standard.com/article/ economy-policy/china-accounts-for-89-of-india-s-total- solar-cells-imports-in-2017-18-118080100849_1.html
6. About 2 lakh jobs lost due dumping of Chinese solar panel: Parliament Panel, https://m.economictimes.com/news/ economy/foreign-trade/about-2-lakh-jobs-lost-due- dumping-of-chinese-solar-panel-parliament-panel/ articleshow/65153134.cms
7. Nitin Gadkari Tells Carmakers: Move to Electric Cars or be Bulldozed, https://auto.ndtv.com/news/nitin-gadkari- tells-carmakers-move-to-electric-cars-or-be-bulldozed- 1747395
8. Govt’s electric vehicle campaign can create $300 billion domestic battery market: NITI Aayog, https:// www.livemint.com/Industry/CQjREFzAOvTIXJ 914UERgM/Move-to-100-electric-vehicles-can-create- 300-billion-domes.html
9. India’s first-ever hydrogen fuel cell powered bus by Tata Motors is here! Made in India bus emits only water, https:/ /www.financialexpress.com/auto/car-news/tata-motors- indianoil-corporation-flag-off-countrys-first-hydrogen- fuel-cell-powered-bus/1096895/
10. https://swarajyamag.com/magazine/the-fourth-industrial- revolution-is-upon-us-and-india-may-miss-the-bus-again
11. https://swarajyamag.com/magazine/the-fourth-industrial- revolution-is-upon-us-and-india-may-miss-the-bus-again
12. Vice Chancellor addresses Times Higher Education’s Asia Universities Summit on how universities can drive the Fourth Industrial Revolution, https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/ news/nr/times-higher-education-asia-universities-summit- 1.761693
