Demographic Contraction in Bharat: Punjab as the Early Warning
Webinar
Organizer: Swadeshi Shodh Sansthan
Moderator: Prof. Rajinder Singh
Date: 4th July 2026
Time: 6:00 pm (zoom)
The Punjab Chair, Swadeshi Shodh Sansthan, organized a webinar on “Demographic Contraction in Bharat: Punjab as the Early Warning”. The webinar was graced by several distinguished dignitaries including Shri Satish Kumar (Seh-Sangthak, Swadeshi Jagran Manch), Prof. Somnath Sachdeva (Executive Chairman, SSS), Dr. Sarabjeet Kaur (Secretary, SSS), Prof. Nandini Sinha Kapoor (Chapter Head, Delhi Chapter), Prof. Rajinder Singh (Head, Punjab Chair), Dr. Satyadeva Mishra (Department of Philosophy, Tripura University), Dr. Sudha Bishnoi (Ghanshyam Das College, Sri Ganganagar), Om Prakash Jha (Tripura University). Prof. Rajinder Singh has introduced the guest speaker and gave an introductory remark on the topic.
Inaugural Address
Prof. Somnath Sachdeva (Executive Chairman, Swadeshi Shodh Sansthan)
Prof. Sachdeva welcomed the speaker and emphasized the importance of addressing Bharat’s changing demographic profile. His key observations included:
- Bharat remains one of the world’s youngest countries, with nearly 65% of its population below 35 years and around 370 million youth (15–29 years) constituting its demographic dividend.
- The demographic dividend has historically been a major driver of economic growth in developed nations and therefore requires careful policy attention.
- The replacement-level fertility rate is approximately 1, whereas Bharat’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to around 1.9.
- Punjab’s TFR is among the country’s lowest (around 4), making it an early indicator of demographic contraction.
- Several European countries have introduced incentives to increase fertility, highlighting the seriousness of sustained population decline.
Speaker’s Address
Dr. Deepak Sharma
(Professor, Department of Political Science, Sri Guru Nanak Dev Khalsa College, University of Delhi)
Dr. Sharma discussed demographic contraction as an emerging national challenge and highlighted the following points:
- Demographic contraction refers to the shrinking of the working-age population and the rapid ageing of society rather than merely population decline.
- Bharat is likely to experience its demographic transition between 2030 and 2050, requiring long-term policy preparedness.
- Through the Swavalambi Bharat Abhiyan, the Swadeshi Jagran Manch has been creating awareness about preserving Bharat’s demographic dividend.
- Major reasons behind declining fertility include:
- Delayed marriage and childbirth due to higher education and career aspirations.
- Urbanization, rising living costs, and the preference for smaller families.
- The gradual weakening of the traditional concept of Kutumb (joint family system).
- Punjab faces additional challenges such as:
- Large-scale migration of educated youth abroad.
- Drug abuse, social insecurity, and psychological stress among young people.
- He cautioned that continued demographic contraction could result in labour shortages, population ageing, and declining social cohesion.
- Stressing the importance of family, he observed that Sanskar (values) are nurtured within families, making strong family institutions essential for a strong society and nation.
Special Address
Shri Satish Kumar Ji
(Seh-Sangathak, Swadeshi Jagran Manch)
Shri Satish Kumar emphasized:
- Declining fertility is one of Bharat’s most significant long-term demographic challenges.
- Maintaining a balanced TFR is crucial for sustainable economic development and national security.
- Greater interdisciplinary research and public awareness are necessary to understand and address demographic contraction effectively.
The webinar concluded with an interactive question-and-answer session followed by a vote of thanks by Dr. Sarabjeet Kaur. The discussions underscored that demographic contraction is not merely a population issue but a multidimensional challenge affecting economic productivity, social stability, family structures, and national development.
