By Ms. Rakhi Solanki and Dr. Sarabjeet Kaur
As India approaches its centenary of independence in 2047, the nation finds itself at a critical demographic crossroads. The vision of a fully developed or “Viksit” Bharat faces a significant challenge: a steadily declining fertility rate. In 2021-22, India’s fertility rate reached 2.0 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1. This demographic shift presents both challenges and opportunities for Vision 2047 Bharat, India’s ambitious blueprint for transformation into a developed nation. The changing landscape has profound implications for the country’s economic future and the role of its youth in shaping the path forward.
India has long been poised to reap the benefits of its demographic dividend, with a large working-age population supporting economic growth. However, the declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR) may alter this scenario. According to the National Family Health Survey-5, the TFR dropped to 2.0 in 2019-21, potentially transforming the demographic dividend into a demographic burden by 2047. This shift has been driven by several factors, including increased female empowerment and education, government initiatives promoting family planning, urbanization and economic growth, delayed marriages, and changing social norms favouring smaller families.
The reasons behind India’s falling fertility rates are multifaceted. Increased access to education, particularly higher education for women, has led to delayed marriages and smaller family sizes. Educated women often have more autonomy in family planning decisions, contributing to the overall decline in fertility. The government’s expansion of family welfare programs, community health workers, and healthcare centers has improved access to family planning information and contraception, further accelerating the trend. Urbanization and economic growth have changed lifestyles and reduced incentives for larger families, while the rising average age of marriage for both men and women has resulted in later childbearing and smaller family units. Additionally, cultural attitudes have shifted, with smaller, nuclear families becoming more desirable and accepted in Indian society.
Looking to the future, UN estimates paint a picture of rapid demographic change for India. The country’s senior population (over 60) is projected to grow by 41% between 2021 and 2031. By 2046, there will be more seniors than children in India, and by 2050, one in five Indians will be elderly. These projections extend further, suggesting that by the end of the century, 36% of Indians will be over 60. This aging population poses significant economic challenges, particularly in terms of the rising old-age dependency ratio, which will put strain on a declining working-age population.
Unlike developed countries that aged more slowly and at higher income levels, India faces the challenge of managing an aging population earlier in its development trajectory. This presents a unique set of obstacles for policymakers and society at large. The impact on Vision 2047 Bharat will be far-reaching, affecting various aspects of India’s development. Economic growth may slow due to a shrinking workforce unless productivity significantly increases. The healthcare system will need to rapidly evolve to manage age-related illnesses and provide long-term care for an expanding elderly population. Social security and pension systems will face increased pressure as the dependent population grows, necessitating robust and sustainable solutions.
Furthermore, the demographic shift may influence innovation and entrepreneurship, as a smaller youth population could lead to a reduction in new business formation and technological advancement. The education system may need to pivot towards lifelong learning and reskilling programs for an older workforce, ensuring that the labor force remains productive and adaptable. Urban planning will also need to adapt, focusing on creating age-friendly infrastructure and accessible cities that cater to the needs of an older population.
Despite these challenges, India’s youth have a crucial role to play in realizing the vision of Viksit Bharat. Young Indians must focus on acquiring high-value skills that can drive productivity and innovation, compensating for the future workforce shortage. Encouraging entrepreneurship and new business models can create employment opportunities and drive economic growth, even with a smaller working-age population. Embracing and developing new technologies, particularly in automation and artificial intelligence, can help maintain economic output and competitiveness on the global stage.
Young professionals in healthcare will be instrumental in developing innovative solutions for an aging population, including advancements in telemedicine and preventive care technologies. The youth can also lead in creating sustainable cities, developing clean technologies, and promoting circular economy models, ensuring that India’s development is both economically vibrant and environmentally sustainable. Social innovation will be crucial, with young people developing new models of community support and intergenerational cooperation to address the challenges of an aging society.
Active engagement in the political process is essential for young Indians to ensure that policies address long-term challenges like social security and healthcare for an aging population. Additionally, participating in international exchanges and collaborations can bring innovative ideas from around the world to help address India’s unique demographic challenges.
To navigate this demographic shift successfully, India must implement strategic initiatives across various sectors. Investing in human capital through education and skill development programs will be crucial to boost the productivity of the shrinking workforce. Promoting and facilitating greater participation of women in the formal economy can help offset the impact of a declining working-age population. Leveraging technology, particularly through investments in automation and AI, can maintain economic output even as the workforce shrinks.
Reforming social security systems to develop a robust and sustainable pension framework that can support an aging population is imperative. Encouraging healthy aging through the promotion of preventive healthcare and wellness programs will ensure a healthier elderly population, potentially reducing the burden on healthcare systems. Fostering innovation by creating an ecosystem that supports research and development in age-related technologies and services can position India as a leader in addressing the challenges of an aging society.
Urban planning must adapt to develop age-friendly cities with accessible infrastructure and services, ensuring that the physical environment supports the needs of all age groups. Promoting intergenerational solidarity through programs that foster cooperation and understanding between generations will be essential for social cohesion and support systems.
The dream of ‘Viksit Bharat @2047’ faces significant demographic challenges, but these also present unique opportunities for transformation. As India’s fertility rate declines, each young individual’s contribution becomes increasingly vital. The youth of today must rise to this challenge, viewing it not as a burden but as an opportunity to shape a new paradigm of development. Their actions and innovations will be crucial in determining whether India can successfully navigate this demographic transition and emerge as a developed nation.
In 2047, when India celebrates a century of independence, it will be the efforts of today’s youth that determine whether Viksit Bharat becomes a reality. With vision, dedication, and innovation, they have the power to create an India that not only achieves developed status but becomes a model for managing demographic transitions in the developing world. The path to Viksit Bharat 2047 requires a delicate balance between addressing the needs of an aging population and harnessing the potential of its youth. By focusing on skill development, technological innovation, sustainable practices, and inclusive policies, India can turn its demographic shift into an opportunity for unprecedented growth and development.
As India navigates this demographic transformation, the world will be watching. The success of ‘Viksit Bharat @2047’ could provide valuable lessons for other developing nations facing similar demographic challenges. The future of India lies in the hands of its youth, and their actions today will shape the nation for generations to come. The journey towards Viksit Bharat is not just about economic indicators; it’s about creating a society that is prosperous, equitable, and sustainable in the face of significant demographic change. With the right strategies, policies, and youth engagement, India can emerge as a global leader, demonstrating how to successfully manage the transition to an aged society while maintaining economic dynamism and social progress.
